The IMPАCT ОF ENERGY IMPОRT DEPENDENCY ОN АFFОRDАBLE АND RELIАBLE ENERGY АCCESS IN EURОPE

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between external exposure in the energy sector and the development of cleaner domestic sources across the 27 member states of the European Union. The study uses Eurostat data for 2024 and focuses on two indicators: energy import dependence and the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption. The empirical approach combines descriptive statistics, scatter plot analysis, Pearson correlation, simple linear regression and the construction of a composite vulnerability score based on min-max normalization. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity among EU member states, both in terms of reliance on external energy supplies and progress in the transition toward cleaner sources. The Pearson correlation coefficient indicates a statistically significant negative association between energy import dependence and the share of renewables, while the regression results confirm that higher reliance on external supplies is associated with lower renewable energy shares. The composite score highlights marked differences between countries, with Malta, Luxembourg, Ireland, Belgium and Cyprus showing the highest levels of exposure, while Sweden, Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Denmark record more favourable profiles. The findings suggest that reducing structural exposure requires not only limiting reliance on external supplies, but also accelerating the development of domestic clean energy capacities, improving infrastructure and strengthening the conditions for a more resilient transition.