Macroeconomic developments based on the main components' method

Abstract

The main components’ method allows for identifying the fundamental structures of some complex data basis,the highlighting of significant relationships of interdependence and the selection of a low number of factors the features of which may be used as basis for estimates or decisions. The paper intends to investigate some variables with direct and significantly propagated impact on the evolution of macroeconomic indicators – oil price, human capital and educational stock. The suggested methodology permits the identification of measures and instruments of policies’ adjustment, including some prevention mechanisms. The outcomes of using the model are presented based on: a) determining the influences of oil price changes (including shocks) on some macroeconomic indicators for the same period of time in which these occur; b) determining the employability on industries of the national economy with major impact on economic development, particularly for transition countries exposed to deep structural changes; c) influence of diminishing rate of non-participation to education and/or early school-leaving on economic performances.